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【摘要】
气候环境问题具有明显的外部性特征，环境变化带来的外部经济、外部不经济均可转变为企业生产经营中的内生变量。本文首次研究了企业环境成本内部化对商业银行风险的影响，从环保标准提高、气候变化、银行承担污染连带责任、声誉风险等维度构建了企业环境成本对商业银行风险影响的理论框架、传导路径和测算方法，提出了相关建议。运用“自下而上”的方法，通过对火电、水泥两个行业的压力测试，开创了环境因素对银行信用风险影响这一微观领域中的拓荒性研究，从压力测试这一独特视角解决了环境风险影响的量化问题。
Abstract
The benefits of the positive externalities of an unpolluted environment and stable
climate are enjoyed by all economic actors. Conversely, the costs of the negative
externalities of the pollution and emissions that damage the environment and cause
climate change have historically not affected individual firms. However, both positive
and negative externalities can be internalized by a firm with the introduction of
relevant policy- and market-based mechanisms. For the first time for a Chinese financial
institution, this paper discusses the impact of internalizing environmental costs onto
a firm’s balance sheet and the consequent risks this creates for commercial banks. A
relevant theoretical framework, transmission mechanisms and analytical methodologies
are established to assess the impact of tightening environmental protection standards
and climate change policies, joint and several liabilities that banks are exposed to via
their customers’ activities and changes in the bank’s reputational standing in the
eyes of its shareholders and depositors. Two industries, namely thermal power and
cement production, are selected for stress testing against a range of high, medium and
low stress scenarios and the impact on their financial performance and credit ratings is
assessed as a result. Actionable responses to this analysis are put forward. This bank-led
approach to research in this focused field (i.e. assessing the impact of environmental
factors on credit risk of commercial banks) is pioneering in China.
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